Pin It

Trail Mix — November 1, 2012 

click to enlarge art18603.jpg

Roll the Videotape

The 1,000-mile-wide Superstorm Sandy was about the only thing that was going to push the presidential election off the front pages, but Sandy had another impact, too. It reminded everyone of the role of FEMA — villain of Hurricane Katrina, but savior to many in the South (especially Florida). Videotape of Mitt Romney advocating for eliminating or privatizing FEMA was quickly rebutted by his campaign, saying Romney now actually wants to keep FEMA as is. Another flip-flop for his binder? As of Tuesday, Romney was refusing to answer questions about FEMA.

Same As It Ever Was?

Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight blog on has become an addiction for nervous poll watchers. But earlier this week, he dropped this bombshell:

“When we introduced this year’s FiveThirtyEight forecast model on June 7, the closest states were Colorado, Ohio and Virginia, each of which slightly favored Mr. Obama. In Florida and North Carolina, meanwhile, we had Mitt Romney listed as a modest favorite.

“Pretty much the same could be said about the race today. In fact, our projected leader in all 50 states is the same as it was at our launch of the forecast in June.”

Yes, you read that correctly. After hundreds of millions in advertising dollars spent, nothing has changed.

If It’s Close

It’s conceivable that we could wind up with a 272 to 266 final Electoral College tally — that’s with President Obama losing the swing states of Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina and Florida, but winning Colorado, Nevada, Wisconsin and Iowa. And yes, in this scenario, tiny New Hampshire, with its four electoral votes, would decide the election.

No matter who wins, if it’s razor-close — perhaps even with a different popular vote winner than Electoral College winner — there will be a nationwide freak-out. If Dems are on the losing end, it would be the second time in four elections they’ll feel screwed. If the GOP loses a squeaker, perhaps they’ll start questioning our ancient system of picking the president.

If It’s Not

It’s also plausible that President Obama could win fairly big — if he wins Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, Wisconsin, Iowa and New Hampshire, but loses North Carolina and Florida, he gets 303 votes.

This would trigger some soul-searching among Republicans. They’d be wise to focus on the effects of the Electoral College, which allows both parties to ignore vast swaths of America. The next GOP nominee would need to expand their map and learn to talk to more voters in states like New York and California.


  • Pin It

Latest in Comment

  • Crapo Flip-Flops
  • Crapo Flip-Flops

    Trail Mix: Idaho senator tied in knots, and Trump's wordplay
    • Oct 27, 2016
  • Now It's Our Turn
  • Now It's Our Turn

    A newly minted voter reflects on joining the process of American democracy
    • Oct 27, 2016
  • We Shall Overcome
  • We Shall Overcome

    In retrospect, this election could mean short-term pain for long-term gain
    • Oct 27, 2016
  • More »


Subscribe to this thread:

Add a comment

Today | Fri | Sat | Sun | Mon | Tue | Wed
Ghost Stories: An Interactive Theatre Experience

Ghost Stories: An Interactive Theatre Experience @ Spokane Community College

Oct. 29-30, 7:30-9:30 p.m.

All of today's events | Staff Picks

More by Ted S. McGregor Jr.

  • Between the Tweets
  • Between the Tweets

    The Trump campaign is a circus; you have to tune out the barking and focus on the promises he's made
    • Oct 6, 2016
  • <b>From Crimson &#10;to Purple</b>
  • From Crimson to Purple

    Bob Gregory was a Spokane-bred Cougar through and through; now he's prowling the sidelines for the Huskies
    • Sep 1, 2016
  • After the Deluge
  • After the Deluge

    Cleaning up Trump's hot mess is going to take some heroic leadership
    • Sep 1, 2016
  • More »

Most Commented On

  • Defending North Idaho

    Why Heather Scott must go
    • Oct 20, 2016
  • The Do-Over

    After failing to pass a bus service tax hike last year, Spokane Transit Authority has a plan to get you to vote for it again
    • Oct 6, 2016
  • More »

Top Tags in
News & Comment

election 2016


green zone


trail mix

Readers also liked…

  • To Kill the Black Snake
  • To Kill the Black Snake

    Historic all-tribes protest at Standing Rock is meant to stop the destruction of the earth for all
    • Sep 8, 2016
  • Put Kids First
  • Put Kids First

    Why adults in Olympia must come together to pass the Early Start Act
    • May 27, 2015

© 2016 Inlander
Website powered by Foundation