5 super early observations about the this year's Gonzaga squad

The Zags are officially back.

After a couple of exhibition games, the 2022-23 Gonzaga Bulldogs men's basketball team officially kicked off the season last night with a 104-63 win over North Florida at McCarthey Athletic Center. It was an expected easy win for the No. 2 ranked team in the country before the season really kicks into gear on Friday with a showdown with Michigan State in San Diego on the deck of the USS Abraham Lincoln in the San Diego (the game airs on ESPN at 3:30 pm). GU will follow that tilt with a non-conference slate that includes No. 4 Kentucky, (Nov. 20) No. 5 Baylor (Dec. 2), No. 12 Texas (Nov. 16) and No. 20 Alabama (Dec. 17).

While it's still way too early to make definitive statements about this year's squad, there's at least now a small sample size of evidence to suggest what aspect might be key to the Bulldogs' national title hopes.

DEFENSE WINS CHAMPIONSHIPS

Gonzaga's offense will always score. Here's the real question the Bulldogs will have to answer this year: Can they guard top-level teams?

As anyone who watched last year's team can attest, there was a night-and-day difference for Zags' defense when stud seven-footer Chet Holmgren wasn't on the floor to anchor the D. Now that Chet's off to the NBA, does GU have the firepower to match up with the other NCAA elites?

The red flag was raised on this issue during the blowout loss in pay-per-view scrimmage against Tennessee. While the game doesn't count, it might've been the worst defensive effort in the Mark Few era. Not only were the Zags allowing a ton of wide open three pointers to the Vols, in the second half it felt like Tennessee was running a layup line warmup with how little the Zags bothered to defend drives to the paint. On that night, the Zags looked to lack both the size and athleticism to match up properly with their SEC foes. While the D cranked up in the second exhibition and the opener, that also coincides with playing far less talented teams.

The matchup against Michigan State — a good, but likely non-title-contending team — should really illuminate how concerned fans should be about the defense. The Zags might be able to survive not having great rim protection or having suspect perimeter D, but they simply can't be subpar at both.

REID-ING IS FUNDAMENTAL

The defensive question marks lead me to what might be a bit of a hot take.

I think Efton Reid might be the x-factor for this year's Zags. While All-American Drew Timme will obviously be the team's leader in the post (with senior Anton Watson providing glue guy support), Reid has the potential to fill in gaps the other two bigs simply cannot.

First and foremost, former 5-star recruit and transfer from LSU is a true seven-footer, offering interior defensive size that can at least partially patch the hole left by Homgren. Timme is never going to be a defensive force and the six-foot-eight-inch Watson is just undersized to handle certain bigs. Gonzaga needs someone to step up and be an occasional defensive stopper, and Reid seems like the only player on the roster who has the potential to do that.

Furthermore, early on Reid has shown flashes of offensive capability, with soft touch on some hook shots around the rim. He's not going to be someone who Few will design the offense to run through this season, but he should be able to get some buckets that don't seem like flukes.

He won't be the marquee player at any point this season, but the Zags' highest-end upside can't be reached without him becoming a key cog off the bench.

MR. SMITH COMES TO WASHINGTON

Speaking of the bench, I'm not sure how long Few will be able to keep Malachi Smith on it.

Despite not being in the starting lineup, the transfer guard from Chattanooga — who last year was both the Southern Conference Player of the Year and took home the Lou Henson Award for the best mid-major player in the country — has looked like the Zags' best guard so far.

That's not a knock on the other Gonzaga guards, Smith's decisiveness just stands out from the pack. He looks like a guy who's used to being the best player whenever he takes the court and isn't skittish about putting his stamp on the game. Rasir Bolton is an ace shooter, but thrives in a secondary role. Nolan Hickman has a calm hand running the point, but is still developing into someone who puts his own fingerprints on the game flow. He's almost like a game-manager quarterback at this point — he's going to safely run the offense with few mistakes but isn't yet at the point where he can go out there and be the driving force behind a win (he'll probably get there eventually, maybe later in the season, but he's only a sophomore after all).

Comparatively, Smith seems like a force when he's on the court — someone the other team has to actively worry about every play. He flashed that in the North Florida game, where he scored 15 on 7-10 shooting, displaying both an aggressive offensive attack and shooting range beyond the arc. Even when he got the ball to start a fast break, he pushed with a forceful pace that the other guards did not. His thick frame also looks to be useful on the glass, snaring six rebounds in the opener to go along with three assists and zero turnovers.

While Smith can certainly have an impact coming off the bench (he still ended up playing the third-most minutes in the opener), if he keeps playing like he has so far, it'll be tough to keep starting either Hickman or Watson over the guy who might straight-up be the Zags' second-best player.

THREE-POINT PERSPECTIVE

Here's the dirty little secret about recent Gonzaga teams which even national experts seem to miss: The Zags haven't had a great three-point shooting team the past couple seasons.

During the undefeated run to the National Title Game in 2020-21, Corey Kispert's shooting carried the squad to respectable deep-shooting numbers. But when he went cold in the NCAA Tournament, GU basically had no other reliable threat from behind the arc (Joel Ayayi was the only other guy on that squad to average more than 1.5 3-point attempts per game while shooting them above 34 percent). Last year's squad had more shooting depth between Bolton, Strawther, and the departed Homgren and Andrew Nembhard, but frankly didn't shoot enough 3s (the team ranked 232nd in the country in 3-point attempts per game despite shooting the 48th best percentage behind the arc).

In modern basketball, it's near impossible to be an elite team without bombing shots from deep. So the development of the attack from behind the arc is crucial for GU. Bolton returning is a huge boost in that department as his 46 percent shooting from 3 was top 24 in the country last year. Smith should also be able to provide deep firepower, having shot over 40 percent from range at Chattanooga last season.

That leaves the wild cards: Hickman, Julian Strawther, Dominick Harris and Hunter Sallis. Harris might be the best best to provide another deep threat, as he flashed that potential as a freshman, but after being out for a year with a foot injury, it remains to be seen what the team can expect from him from a minutes and durability standpoint. As sophomores, Hickman and Sallis both have the potential to find consistency from deep, but it's yet to translate on the court.

That leaves Strawther who could use an awesome shooting season to both lift Gonzaga and improve his NBA Draft stock. While he's got almost every offensive tool you'd want from a wing, he wasn't able to find consistency last year. In 14 games last year he shot over 40 percent from 3... but in 14 other games he shot 25 percent or worse. That feast or famine play isn't that big of a deal against WCC opponents, but it can be brutal against top-tier teams... as evidenced by Strawther's 1-14 performance behind the arc in the 2022 NCAA Tournament. He's got the sweet stroke to hit those shots, but form doesn't matter if the results are rotten.

If Bolton and Smith maintain their shooting excellence, the team probably still needs at least two of the other guys to be consistent threats from beyond the arc. Time will tell if that manifests. Against North Texas, those other four players mentioned were a combined 1-4 from deep.

LOWERED EXPECTATIONS?

Gonzaga is ranked No. 2 in the country. That seems like a logical ranking given the factors: Timme's return, the program's consistency, incoming talent like Smith, etc.

That said, anyone who watched the Tennessee exhibition had the same thought, "There is simply no way this team should be ranked that high."

The great thing about the powerhouse non-conference schedules that Coach Few puts together has always been that fans have a good sense of the Zags by mid-December. Getting stomped in a game that doesn't count (and previously would've been unseen), has mildly changed the calculus of that. It certainly not time to panic, but if GU ends up dropping a few of the early-season ranked tilts, it might be time to re-adjust expectations for this year's squad.

That's not necessarily a bad thing.

I certainly expect the Zags to win at least a couple of their upcoming marquee non-conference games, but even if things go poorly, it might not be the worst thing for the players to not have the burden of carrying a top 5 ranking all year long. It's been five years since the last time the Bulldogs entered the NCAA Tournament not as a 1-seed, and having to play a bit more of the gritty underdog role could potentially give this squad a much-edge.

While certainly no one's rooting for the Zags to start slow, it wouldn't be shocking if they have a few more games that turn out like the Tennessee exhibition. While that might take the national spotlight off Gonzaga, fans shouldn't bail on this squad.

These Zags are far from a finished product at present. Enjoy the growth, even if there are growing pains.