Washington is one of the most trade-dependent states in the country, but it's not just how much we trade with other countries; it's the type of products that we trade that makes tariffs and the resulting trade war particularly harmful.
In theory, tariffs could provide some benefits to the United States by forcing more domestic manufacturing since increased tariffs will cause overseas-manufactured goods to be more expensive, thereby making the U.S.-manufactured goods more competitive. The U.S., the theory says, will stop importing so many goods and make them domestically instead, which will increase jobs and economic activity in our country.
There are a whole lot of holes in this theory. First, think of tariffs as taxes, which is exactly what they are. The cost of imports will go up, since U.S. consumers will be paying more for goods in the short term as those goods have tariffs/taxes added to them. If more products are ultimately made in the U.S., prices will still be higher due to the higher costs of manufacturing in the U.S. But it remains to be seen if U.S. companies and workers even want to produce those items in the United States. And even if that U.S.-based manufacturing were to eventually increase and there were to be some benefits in jobs, it would take many years to ramp up production. Meanwhile, the trade war will have inflicted deep recession-making harm on the economy.
Even if the case for tariffs was solid, it's unlikely that they would benefit Washington state because we have more jobs connected with exporting our state's goods than we could ever likely gain from an increase in manufacturing. We are one of the few net-exporting states, which means we make and ship more products abroad than we import from overseas.
So building tariff walls designed to keep out foreign goods actually prevents Washington state goods from being sold to markets in other countries. In other words, rather than bringing foreign jobs to the U.S., we are going to be shedding Washington state jobs as foreign markets for our Washington-produced goods dissolve due to tariffs.
Washington's biggest exports are airplanes and related aerospace parts as well as agricultural products like frozen french fries, seafood, apples and wheat. As these items get shipped abroad and sold in other countries (like our state's largest trading partners, China, Canada, Japan, Mexico and South Korea), Washington companies and farmers benefit, as do Washington workers.
If anything, during a prolonged trade war Washington state jobs may go abroad as aerospace companies are forced to manufacture their products in other countries so they can sell to the rest of the world without high tariffs. Even if the wildly flawed theory upon which this trade war is based were correct, it would backfire here and harm Washington companies, workers and the state as a whole.
Aside from raising the costs of imported and exported goods, a trade war causes other problems, like reduced tourism. Frustrated potential visitors may choose to avoid spending their precious travel dollars in a country that is starting a trade war with their home nation. For Washington, a state that borders Canada, a reduction in visitors from the north means reduced economic activity. One prominent recent example reported by the Seattle Times is fewer Toronto Blue Jays fans traveling to watch their country's one MLB team play in Seattle. I have attended a Blue Jays Blue at T-Mobile Park in the past, and it feels like a Toronto home game with Blue Jays fans from all over Western Canada outnumbering Seattle fans. This year, fewer fans traveled across the border for these games, which means less economic activity for our state.
"A trade war is not just a concern for the Puget Sound region or agricultural communities. Spokane companies annually export $818 million worth of goods to other countries..."
A trade war is not just a concern for the Puget Sound region or agricultural communities. Spokane companies annually export $818 million worth of goods to other countries, according to the U.S. Trade Representative. If that production takes a nose-dive, it is certainly enough to put a serious dent in Spokane's economy.
Even if Donald Trump were to stop his trade war right now, there would be significant harm. The aggressive tariffs have rattled markets and made trading partners nervous. Trump has disturbed a trade stability that has largely been in place since the end of World War II by informing the world that the U.S. can no longer be trusted as a stable trading partner. Even with that harm already inflicted, the best course of action from this point is to drop the trade war and return to the U.S. trade posture before Donald Trump's inauguration.
As a state that is so trade-dependent, it's a concern that there are very few state-level tools with which to combat a trade war. I was encouraged that Washington Lt. Gov. Denny Heck led a delegation to the British Columbia Parliament earlier this month to affirm Washington state's desire to maintain close ties with B.C. regardless of what is happening in the other Washington. But the reality is that trade policy is made almost entirely at the federal level.
I actually do have some hope that the trade war will eventually fade away. The fact is that it's wildly unpopular and likely to be even more unpopular as the full impact of tariffs are felt in the coming months. The American public understands the harm that will be inflicted on the economy and on their households by this trade war; people from across the country and across the political spectrum will suffer. Farmers, business owners, consumers, workers... pretty much everyone will pay the price for this folly. It may be too much to hope that Donald Trump will respond to the cries for help, but at some point the political and economic pressure will cause a response from the Republican majorities in Congress and/or the American voters.
There's one other problem with a trade war. I don't want to sound too dramatic, but a trade war is a threat to world peace. One of the core benefits to international free trade is that it brings nations closer together and creates economic interdependence. It's much more difficult to go to war with a country that is vital to the economic success of your own country.
It seems absurd that one man, in a matter of months, could upend international trade in a way that threatens the world economy and makes the world less safe. For the sake of the world, and especially for Washington state, we need to find ways to keep Washington-produced airplanes, apples and french fries flowing freely to the rest of the world for many years to come. ♦
Andy Billig represented the 3rd District, covering much of Spokane, in the Washington Legislature starting in 2011 as a state representative. He became a state senator in 2013 and Senate majority leader in 2018; he did not run for reelection in 2024. Billig is the CEO of Brett Sports.
