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Recent Comments

Re: “Vaccine Haters

The complete suppression of any disease that uses a live virus in its vaccine is impossible, because some number of people will shed the virus after receiving the vaccine. This is illustrated by Polio, as all cases since 1979 have been vaccine induced. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polio_vaccine#Iatrogenic_.28vaccine-induced.29_polio
Chicken Pox is documented here http://pediatrics.aappublications.org/content/106/2/e28.full
Anyone wanting a contemporary assessment of measles would do well to read
Barkin, R. M. (Bureau of Epidemiology, CDC, Atlanta, GA 30333). Measles mortality: A retrospective look at the vaccine era. Am J Epidemiology 102:341-349, 1975.
In this report Barkin compares the 5 years prior to the licensing of the mealses vaccine with the 10 years post release.
In 1958 to 1963 there were 2 to 6 million measles cases per year, with mortality to case ratio of 1/10,000 equaling 200 to 500 deaths annually, at a time when the US population was about 200,000 million.
However, Barkin’s analysis shows that the mortality was wildly skewed so that well over 80% of the deaths were in poverty level populations in the pre-civil rights era south, Appalachia, and inner city ghettos where there was little access to healthcare, poor sanitary conditions, and poor nutrition.
After WW2 measles stopped being a deadly disease to suburban kids with a hot lunch, a floor in their house, and a family doctor who could prescribe antibiotics. The death/case ratio for suburban kids was 2 or 3 per 500,000 tops.
Measles was even a plot element in an episode of the Brady Bunch, season 1, episode 13, “Is there a Doctor in the House?”. It is on Netflix if you want to see what the average American experience with measles was at that time. I will give you a hint- nobody dies.
In Barkin’s summary he doesn´t call for mandatory universal vaccination.
"The primary goal of measles vaccination should be the prevention of measles cases, but perhaps even more importantly, a reduction in complications secondary to measles. Certainly, vaccine should be accessible to
all populations, but more intensive efforts need to be directed toward high-risk groups who are no doubt suffering from a myriad of social and economic problems and in all likelihood have the least accessibility to adequate health care."
Supporting the concept that measles was not devastating Middle America is the paper, “Telling the World about Measles”. This paper is an exposition of the managing of information surrounding the vaccine licensure to manufacture a perceived need. (Telling the world about measles , a Case history in Government information, Public Health Rep. 1963 October; 78(10): 893–896.)
The authors’ note, “Because many people regard measles as basically a disease of childhood, to be endured and often welcomed as a guarantee of lifetime immunity, it was necessary to stress that measles and its consequences are far from trivial”. Is it reasonable this would have been needed if huge swaths of suburban children in good health were suffering from measles and its complications?
Most of the diseases we vaccinate for are not deadly to a healthy person who has access to modern medical interventions.

9 likes, 7 dislikes
Posted by Karl on 06/14/2011 at 7:34 AM

Re: “Vaccine Haters

WA exceeds the national averages for vaccination rates for school required vaccines.
96% coverage of the required vaccines for 6th graders
(DPT looks low because a booster is required at age 11 and the report is filed at the beginning of the year. )
Kindergartners start school with over 95% MMR, and over 90% of the other required shots.
You can´t have 95 % vaccination rates and a 6.2% exemption rate- that adds up to more than 100%!
The WA exemption rate appears artificially high for 2 primary reasons:
1. "Paperwork" exemptions. Fully 1/3 or more of the exemptions (2% of the 6%) are vaccinating families who simply don´t have their documentation in order at the time of school enrollment. Sympathetic school staff are incorrectly providing exemption forms to permit the children to attend school, when they should be using a "non-compliance" form. WA Health Secretary Mary Selecky recently described this phenomenon on OPB Talk Out Loud radio program.
That means the true vaccination rates are even higher than documented, when you factor in the paperwork exemptors.
2. Chicken Pox- Another 1/3 of the exemption rate (2%) is due to making Chicken Pox a mandatory vaccine. Many parents do not consider Chicken Pox as important as the traditional vaccines. An exemption is needed to delay or opt out of any single dose. Therefore a WA child who is fully current on all of the regular shots still needs an exemption to delay or opt out of the Chicken Pox vaccine. Informed parents are doing the Chicken Pox separate from other vaccines as the CDC notes that getting the Chicken Pox (Varicella) vaccine in the same visit with the MMR increases the normal MMR seizure rate from 1/3500 to 1/2500, and if you use the MMRV combo the seizure rate jumps again to 1/1250. What is unscientific about cutting your childs´ seizure risk by 70% if you can do it by delaying or skipping a vaccine for a disease that was once considered a routine childhood illness?
When you back out the paperwork exemptions and the Chicken Pox exemptions you get the same national average, a statistically insignificant 2% or so of people who have reasonable medical, religious, philosophical, or personal objections.

All vaccination public health objectives are exceeded with the 95% rates currently achieved. Any epidemic risk tipping point is long past at 95%. If 95% isn´t enough to suppress epidemics then the issue isn´t vaccine coverage it is vaccine efficacy.
Public Health Canada clearly states that 1/100,000 doses in all vaccine campaigns result in a serious adverse event (SAE), defined as a Hospitalization, Disability, or Death. This is why the safety question will never go away. While that may be a low individual risk rate, (although certainly more dangerous that Chicken Pox or mumps), the sheer volume of vaccines is overwhelming achievable safety factors. There are 900,000 children in WA public schools. That means each dose of vaccine in the schedule (50 or -) is causing 9 SAE´s. This is the population pool of "true exemptors". There have been a scientific statistically inevitable 2 to 3 thousand legitimate SAE´s in WA over the last 20 years. The 18,000 or so "true exemptors" represent the family members and friends, and others who have first hand knowledge of these injuries.

6 likes, 4 dislikes
Posted by Karl on 06/14/2011 at 6:10 AM

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