This time last season, the sky was falling in Zagville. Gonzaga had six losses on the season and the vaunted NCAA Tournament streak looked to be in serious trouble. Fortunately, there was still a marquee game on the slate with the potential to turn the season around.
Flash forward a year to this season and the sky is once again falling in Zagville.
Except, it’s worse.
The Zags have seven losses and that season-altering game won’t be coming over the horizon.
It’s not all bad, but it’s close.
THE GOOD
Gonzaga’s Got Talent
The overall talent level for Gonzaga has been clear since before the season started. It’s why the Zags were a top-10 team in the polls on opening night and considered by many as a legitimate national title contender.
While the pieces haven’t fit together as well as expected, the individual ability is still clear to see.
That was made even clearer earlier this week when Graham Ike and Ryan Nembhard were named to the midseason watchlist for the U.S. Basketball Writers Association’s Oscar Robertson Trophy, their version of a national player of the year award.
Nembhard was previously included in the 25-player midseason list for the Wooden Award, an even more prominent national player of the year honor.
Ike is in the Top 10 of statistician Ken Pomeroy’s numbers-based player of the year award — a notable name because Pomeroy’s metrics are among the handful taken into consideration by the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee.
Strong Numbers
Beyond the talent, the underlying numbers suggest Gonzaga’s ceiling still remains high.
As of Tuesday, the Zags sit at 13th in the NCAA’s NET Rankings, the most important sorting tool considered by the Selection Committee when it comes to selecting and seeding teams for the tournament bracket.
If things were based on that metric alone, the Zags would be more than comfortably in the NCAA Tournament were it to start today.
Only once has a team in the top-30 of the NET on Selection Sunday been left out of the NCAA Tournament — that was last year’s Indiana State Sycamores, who sat at 29th, if you want to compare their resume to Gonzaga’s.
Beyond the NET, the Zags also rate highly in two prominent computer-based metrics used by the Selection Committee: KenPom and Torvik. They sit a strong 11th in the former and only a few back at 17th in the latter as of Tuesday afternoon.
The computers say the Zags are clearly a tournament team, but it was important to point out that these metrics are as of Tuesday afternoon. The NET changes on a daily basis, while KenPom and Torvik shuffle after every single college basketball game.
THE BAD
Blown Chances
The Zags have lost seven games this season by a combined total of 34 points. Their two largest losses, by point margin, were 8 point losses to West Virginia and Oregon State, but those two games went to overtime, as did their 1 point loss to Kentucky.
They’ve blown a lot of chances, but they’ve never been blown out.
The problem is, basketball isn’t horseshoes or hand grenades and close doesn’t cut it.
Even worse, three of those losses have taken place in West Coast Conference play, with the one against Santa Clara coming in The Kennel. The metrics mentioned above will take notice of a margin of victory, and just the same as a margin of defeat. Which helps explain why the Zags remain so highly-rated by the computers.
People, on the other hand, will look at something simpler: plain old wins and losses.
Gonzaga is 16-7 on the season, but just 2-6 in the all-important Quadrant 1 of the NET Rankings. For the uninitiated, Quadrant 1 is jargon for “games against the best teams.”
Top-ranked Auburn, for comparison, has 12 such wins to just one loss.
Of teams currently in the Top 20 of the NET, only Houston and Arizona are below -.500 against Quadrant 1. The Cougars and Wildcats are both just one game below .500 though, not four like the Zags. And those two teams are in leagues far superior to the WCC. They have ample chances to not only pick up some big wins, but move above .500 in Quadrant 1.
Gonzaga is not afforded that luxury.
The Scheduling Well is Running Dry
To date, Gonzaga’s resume contains eight games against Quadrant 1 opposition. Looking ahead, according to today’s version of the NET, the Zags will get just three more shots before the postseason.
Saint Mary’s visit to Spokane qualifies, as does the Zags’ revenge trip to Santa Clara — a team that already beat them in Spokane this season, and in Santa Clara last year — and the upcoming trip to San Francisco counts as well.
Based on today’s rankings, the Zags would be guaranteed to enter postseason play with a losing record against Quadrant 1. And with the way the NET fluctuates on a daily basis, it’s entirely possible that some of those upcoming opportunities will slip outside of Quadrant 1 altogether.
Saint Mary’s sits at 22 in the rankings. If they fall below 30, it’s off the board. If San Francisco slips 10 spots, the Dons no longer qualify as Quadrant 1 either. Santa Clara needs to fall a bit farther, but if the Broncos slip 15 spots, they’re gone as well.
There is almost no room for error from here until March, and not just for the Zags. Gonzaga needs to hope those other three teams can stay afloat as well.
THE UGLY
Gonzaga's Loss to Saint Mary’s
As far as the Zag's conference losses go, this one is the least shocking but arguably the most painful.
The Gaels aren’t just a rival, they’re the rival.
It’s a rivalry that has evolved dramatically since the incendiary days of Omar Samhan versus Rob Sacre, two players more than willing to speak their mind about the opposing program. There is real respect now between the coaches, the players, the programs, and even the fans.
But still, the Zags lost to Saint Mary’s. The freakin’ Gaels. Gross.
Sure, the Zags have lost to the Gaels before and been just fine. Normally, those seasons have ended with Gonzaga atop Saint Mary’s in the standings. Saturday’s loss, however, looks considerably more significant than most that have come before.
Saint Mary’s now owns a three-game lead over Gonzaga in the conference standings with just eight games to play.
Gonzaga would need to go undefeated with Saint Mary’s going 5-3 down the stretch simply to pull into a tie for first place.
For what it’s worth, KenPom projects the Gaels to go 7-1 over that span. The lone projected loss? In Spokane. Some comfort.
Saint Mary’s is well ahead of the pack and on pace to win the league’s regular season title. On its own, that’s hard enough for Zag fans to stomach. When you remember that Saint Mary’s won the league outright last season as well? It’s outright nauseating.
Barring a miracle, Gonzaga is tracking to finish worse than first for a second straight season. That hasn’t happened since the 1995-96 and 1996-97 seasons. Mark Few, 62 years old now, was in his mid-30s back then and two full seasons away from taking over as head coach.
It’s an ugly thought, these Gaels.
UP NEXT
Men
Gonzaga vs. Loyola Marymount • Thu, Feb. 8 at 6 pm • KHQ and ESPN+
Gonzaga at Pacific • Sat, Feb. 10 at 5 pm • KHQ and ESPN+
Women
Gonzaga at Saint Mary’s • Thu, Feb. 8 at 6:30 pm • WCC Network
Gonzaga vs. Washington State • Sat, Feb. 10 at 2 pm • SWX and ESPN+
