While it might not feature two Top 25 teams — as has been the case for the prior six match-ups — Saturday’s game between Gonzaga and Saint Mary's is poised to be as big and important as any in the storied rivalry’s history.
By the wins and losses alone, the rivalry is lopsided. The Gaels have just 13 wins to 47 losses versus the Zags since Randy Bennett took over as head coach in the 2001-02 season. Despite that, the series has become one of the sport’s most heated rivalries.
Since 2002, these teams have met in the WCC Tournament 16 times, with 13 of those meetings coming in the championship game. The last time a team other than Gonzaga or Saint Mary’s won a WCC championship, regular season or tournament, was San Diego back when the Toreros hosted the WCC Tournament in 2008.
Saint Mary’s has been the only team capable of spoiling the Zags' dominance in the league.
In 2012, the Gaels snapped Gonzaga’s 14-year streak of winning either the WCC regular season or tournament championship (usually both). The teams split their series in the regular season that year, but Saint Mary’s handled business better in its other games and went on to take down the Zags in an overtime thriller to win the tournament.
With a win on Saturday, the Gaels would have a two-game lead over Gonzaga in the standings and the inside track to spoiling the Zags' hopes once again. But unlike that 2012 season, when Gonzaga comfortably made the NCAA Tournament as a 7-seed, this year feels more like the 2016 season. That was the last time Gonzaga was in such a precarious position on the NCAA Tourney bubble. And as they are this year, Saint Mary’s was in a precarious position that season, too.
Despite sweeping the Zags in the regular season and earning the top-seed in the conference tournament, Saint Mary’s missed the NCAA Tournament in 2016. The Gaels lost in the WCC title game, Gonzaga took the automatic bid, and the WCC sent just one team dancing.
Now, with March just around the corner, neither Gonzaga nor Saint Mary’s can feel comfortable about their NCAA Tournament chances. A win in The Kennel would go a long way to bolster either team’s resume.
Currently, Gonzaga has a 0-4 record in the NET Rankings' important Quad 1 games. As of now, there are only three more Q1 opportunities on the schedule for the Zags, and Saturday is one of them — the other two will be at Kentucky and at Saint Mary’s.
Saint Mary’s is a respectable 3-3 in the top quadrant, but a pair of losses in quad three are pulling the Gaels towards the bubble.
It’s a big game for both teams, as usual. It’s also one of the rare times that Gonzaga actually needs the win more than Saint Mary’s ... and in this case, the Zags need it a lot more.
Which raises the question, what does Gonzaga need to do Saturday to pick up the win?
OWN THE BOARDS
Saint Mary’s is elite on the glass. The Gaels have pulled down 37% of their missed shots this season, the fifth best mark in the country per analyst Ken Pomeroy of KenPom.com.Gonzaga’s been a strong rebounding team this year, but they’ve been a bit shaky in recent games. While it ultimately did not matter, the Zags were out-rebounded by Loyola Marymount earlier this week. Last Thursday against San Francisco, the Zags were pounded on the glass, which allowed the Dons to stay in the game for the entire 40 minutes.
After a slow start to the season, the Gaels’ offense has been on fire for more than a month now. Guards Aidan Mahaney and Augustas Marciulionis have found their outside shots, and in league play the team as a whole is hitting 38.2% of its threes.
Gonzaga can not let the Gaels grab many of the threes they do miss. One-and-done possessions are a must.
FIND SOME HELP
The Zags have leaned on their starters all season long, and against the best teams on their schedule they’ve done so in an unsustainable way.In nine games against what KenPom considers to be “Tier A” or “Tier B” teams — in other words, quality teams — Gonzaga’s bench has been responsible for just 16.5% of its scoring. The most prolific bench scorer in those games, Ben Gregg, now looks locked into a starting role.
Which means the bench is even thinner than it was before.
Since moving to the bench five games ago, Dusty Stromer’s confidence appears to have taken a hit. He’s shooting just 31.8% from the field in that stretch.
The other bench option is Braden Huff. He’s been good this season. Three times he’s won WCC Player of the Week honors. The teams Gonzaga has taken down in the weeks Huff earned those accolades? Pepperdine, San Diego, Jackson State, USC and Cal State Bakersfield. Of those teams, only San Diego has a winning record this season.
Huff’s been great against bad teams. He’s been absent against good teams, and struggled in the sparse playing time he got in said games. Saint Mary’s is a very good team.
For the season as a whole, Huff’s offensive rating of 124.8 is third on the team behind only Anton Watson and Ben Gregg. Against those “Tier A” and “Tier B” teams per KenPom, Huff’s offensive rating is just 94.4. Huff is Gonzaga's leading scorer per 40 minutes played, but Few has an extremely short leash for him versus high tier talent — he's gotten less than 13 minutes of time on the floor versus teams like San Diego State, UConn, Washington, Syracuse, and UCLA.
Last Thursday against San Francisco, also a good team, Huff played just seven minutes and went 0-5 from the floor. Gonzaga can not afford five empty possessions from Huff against Saint Mary’s.
APPEASE THE ZEBRAS
After everything I just wrote about the lack of scoring from the bench, the Zags could well find themselves leaning on their starters to stay on the floor as they have all season long.Here's the problem: Some of the starters have been struggling to stay on the floor.
Graham Ike was critical for Gonzaga in two games last week. His 10 of 11 performance at the free throw line, most of which came as the Dons frantically tried to make a late comeback, helped the Zags avoid an upset to San Francisco. Two days later, at Pacific, he scored 18 of his 20 points after the half to help push the Zags away from a pesky Tigers team.
The reason he did so much of his work after the half is because he’s spent much of the first half on the bench with foul trouble.
Anton Watson has also been prone to foul trouble. Last week he had four fouls in both games.
Combine Saint Mary’s prowess on the glass with Gonzaga’s lack of punch off the bench and losing Ike or Watson for an extended period would spell serious trouble. Gonzaga may need to lean on its starters, and will need to battle on the boards. Foul trouble would be an impediment to both.
NEXT UP
MenGonzaga vs. Saint Mary’s • Sat, Feb. 3 at 7:30 pm • ESPN
Gonzaga vs. Portland • Wed, Feb. 7 at 5 pm • CBS Sports Network
Women
Gonzaga vs. Pacific • Sat, Feb. 3 at 2 pm • SWX & ESPN+
